and the nominees are . . .

[jlh]

Okay, here's my take. What should win, what will likely win. I'll probably revisit this in a month, and consider that my official "ballot" and then you can see how I do.

I preface this by saying that I am a fan of small pictures with amazing dialogue and no explosions, so caveat lector. Please--contend with me! Argue! Convince me of your case!



I'm going to start with the small stuff and work my way up. Keeps you reading, doesn't it?

Documentary feature
Balseros (Cuban refugees in the US)
Capturing the Friedmans (family unravels in face of child rape accusations)
The Fog of War (Robert McNamara, US Sec'y of Defense during the Vietnam War)
My Architect (About Louis Kahn by his son)
The Weather Underground (60s radical group)

Documentary short subject
Asylum (Kurdish asylum seekers in a Church)
Chernobyl Heart (I assume it's about Chernobyl, but it isn't in imdb so I can't say)
Ferry Tales (A group of women commuters on the Staten Island Ferry)

The old saw is that the Holocaust film will win (this is usually true) but we don't have an easy vote here. On top of that, two of these films actually got some play in theaters and some mainstream press attention--The Fog of War and Capturing the Friedmans. I'm picking Fog of War for the feature (and rushing out to see it) and Asylum for the short subject. No "want to win" here since I haven't seen most of them.


Short film (animated)
Boundin' Pixar
Destino Disney
Gone Nutty
Harvie Krumpet
Nibbles

Usually anything from Pixar would be the smart pick here, but I have actually seen Destino (randomly, ali_wildgoose, epicyclical and I saw it before Calendar Girls) and it is gorgeous. It was conceived by Walt Disney and Salvador Dali, and as I said when I saw it, it does look like Snow White dancing through The Persistence of Memory. So that is my pick, for want to win and will win.


Short film (live action)
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
Most (The Bridge)
Squash
(A) Torzija [(A) Torsion]
Two Soldiers

I'll tell you the truth: I just close my eyes and pick randomly. But I will say, it's really too bad that you can only see short films at film festivals these days. Fewer trailers and more short films, I say.


Sound editing
Finding Nemo
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Sound mixing
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Seabiscuit

Visual effects
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Film editing
City of God
Cold Mountain
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

Finding Nemo, LotR, LotR, LotR, unless Pirates pulls out visual effects for the curse thing, but I very much doubt it.


Art direction
Girl with a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

Costume design
Girl with a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

Makeup
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Will win: LotR, LotR, LotR.
Should win: Actually, Girl with a Pearl Earring should get the first two awards. It wasn't that interesting, but god, was it gorgeous to look at. Also, interesting to note Seabiscuit in there, as it wasn't set all that far in the past.


Cinematography
City of God
Cold Mountain
Girl with a Pearl Earring
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

Since LotR wasn't nominated here, and since Cold Mountain doesn't have any momentum whatsoever, I'm picking Girl with a Pearl Earring as should win and will win. It's risky to make a movie about a painter who was all about the light, but wow, did they ever pull it off visually.


Foreign language film
The Barbarian Invasions Canada
Evil Sweden
The Twilight Samurai Japan
Twin Sisters The Netherlands
Zelary Czech Republic

After several years of big foreign films, there isn't much here anyone has heard of. I did see a very good review for The Barbarian Invasions so I'll go with that one.


Animated feature film
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville

While it's great to see a year with two truly amazing animated films, I feel rather badly that The Triplets of Belleville has to go up against Finding Nemo, which will win, and probably should win, though it's a close call for me, artistically. ali_wildgoose, what say you?


Music (original score)
Big Fish Danny Elfman
Cold Mountain Gabriel Yared
Finding Nemo Thomas Newman
House of Sand and Fog James Horner
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Howard Shore

LotR. But let me just say, thank GOD that hack Williams isn't nominated this year.


Music (original song)
"Into the West" from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
"A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" from A Mighty Wind
"Scarlet Tide" from Cold Mountain
"The Triplets of Belleville" from The Triplets of Belleville
"You Will Be My Ain True Love" from Cold Mountain

LotR. I'm looking forward to the performances (especially the song from A Mighty Wind), and maybe Sting will wear a shirt this time!


Adapted Screenplay
American Splendor
City of God
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

Original Screenplay
The Barbarian Invasions
Dirty Pretty Things
Finding Nemo
In America
Lost in Translation

As Ali mentioned, it's great that Finding Nemo was nominated for screenplay--it really was a fantastic story. But I think this will be Lost in Translation's one win, and very well deserved. As for Adapted, LotR is likely to scoop it up, and I think it deserves it, but my sentimental favourite is American Splendor. It was amazingly innovative, blending live action, animation, and documentary seamlessly, and is what I would vote for if I had a ballot.


Actor in a supporting role
Alec Baldwin in The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro in 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou in In America
Tim Robbins in Mystic River
Ken Watanabe in The Last Samurai

Benicio was amazing, but he's won before. Alec won't win either. The Last Samurai has no momentum, so Watanabe is out. It really is between Hounsou and Robbins, and while I would love for Hounsou to win, I think it will be Robbins, fresh from his Golden Globe win.


Actress in a supporting role
Shohreh Aghdashloo in House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson in Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden in Mystic River
Holly Hunter in Thirteen
Renée Zellweger in Cold Mountain

Renée played the only interesting character in that goddamned forsaken movie. In fact, about 20 minutes in I found myself waiting for her to show up. And she grabbed that part by the teeth and shook it. Should win, will win--the only win for Cold Mountain


Actor in a leading role
Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley in House of Fog and Sand
Jude Law in Cold Mountain
Bill Murray in Lost in Translation
Sean Penn in Mystic River

Oh, my sentimental favorites! How fabulous is it for two actors in more comic than dramatic roles to be nominated here? Bill! Johnny! Between them, my personal pick is Bill, but only because it was a quiet, subtle, affecting thing--the kind of performance no viewer of SNL in 1977 would have predicted.
(Yes, Jude was great, but he has other great roles ahead of him. Yes, Ben was great, but that was a fucking downer of a movie that hardly anyone saw.)
But Sean Penn will get it and should get it. This is arguably the best actor of his generation, at the very top of his game, in a role that is only about him sitting in front of a camera and living the words, and that, my friends, is what this award is all about.


Actress in a leading role
Keisha Castle-Hughes in Whale Rider
Diane Keaton in Something's Gotta Give
Samantha Morton in In America
Charlize Theron in Monster
Naomi Watts in 21 Grams

This was definitely the category with the most surprises. No Jennifer Connely for House of Fog and Sand? Odd! No Nicole Kidman? Thank God! Keisha Castle-Hughes? Fantastic! Naomi Watts? She was amazing. Diane Keaton? I expected the Golden Globe but not this. Samantha Morton has been doing consistently good work for years, and it is good to see her recognized. But the award belongs to Charlize. She won the Globe, so now everyone is going to go out and see the film, be shocked and amazed, and vote for her.


Directing
City of God
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River

Best picture
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

LotR cannot be denied. The only upset I can see is if they decide to give the Best Picture to PJ but the Best Director to Clint for Mystic River, but I don't think that's in the cards. Note that Sofia Coppola is the first American woman nominated as Best Director. How wrong is that?

I imagine that LotR will not win all of its 11 possible awards--Girl with a Pearl Earring has a real chance at some of them--but it is so clearly the film of the year. Though to be honest, I'm glad that it didn't sneak into the acting awards. It is too much of an ensemble to pick anyone out, and this was a year heavy with little arty films like House of Fog and Sand and 21 Grams and Mystic River. There was simply no room for the guy heading up, or adding color to, the blockbuster.

Let the debates begin.

Comments

[aome.livejournal.com]

"A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" from A Mighty Wind

None of the other songs in that movie were original? I thought A Kiss was :-P. Of course, it was *meant* to be schmaltzy, and I *do* like folk music, but still - I'm surprised this is considered a 'best of' for nomination.

[ex-mahoney365.livejournal.com]

I think it would be very very sad if ROTK won Best Picture over Lost in Translation. Anyone can make a loud, good-looking, well-choreographed movie without any characterization, but not everyone can make a movie that looks good *and* brings the characters to life.

I think Jackson deserves Best Director - his directorial handling of the trilogy really was awesome and deserves recognition - but that doesn't imho mean the movie itself is the best. And in this case, imho, it's not.

I'm with you re Bill Murray, and from what I hear you're on with Charlize Theron, too. However, I'm so out of touch with everything else that's all I can comment on. :P

[aegeus.livejournal.com]

I'll tell you the truth: I just close my eyes and pick randomly. But I will say, it's really too bad that you can only see short films at film festivals these days. Fewer trailers and more short films, I say.

The AFI Theatre (half a mile from my house) is going to show ALL of the shorts in one go the week before the awards. Am going to go see them, will report back to you. :D

[chinawolf.livejournal.com]

Actually, I was very sad to see that Goodbye Lenin didn't at least get a nomination for best foreign language film. If you have a chance to see it (if you haven't already), go do so. It's very, very good, the first German movie in three years I've actually seen at the cinema.

[aegeus.livejournal.com]

Goodbye Lenin does not get released in the United States until Febuary 27th, and I think a film must be released in the US in the year the awards are for to be nominated, so Lenin may be nominated next year. Though I could be wrong about the having to be shown in the US somewhere thing.

[malsperanza.livejournal.com]

I'd like Fog of War to win, because Errol Morris is long overdue.

I haven't seen Pearl Earring yet, but Seabiscuit is actually beautifully shot, & probably deserves a cinematography and/or lighting award.

If M&C gets the costume award for putting Russell Crowe in tight white breeches and a frilly shirt, I will be v. irritated. But of course ROTK will win.

I feel compelled to mention Barbarian Invasions in order to spit nails. I don't know why I expected better, since I've hated everything else Arcand has done, but I like Remy Girard, and I'm a sucker. This movie reminds me of a certain brand of sentimental middlebrow quasi-intellectual French film of the 1970s and 1980s. I do not mean Godard and those guys, but a slew of smug, pretty movies about middle-class marriage problems and moral concerns, all of which are neatly resolved over a reallyreallygood meal and some vintage wine and/or happy!sex. And the obligatory ganja to let us all know how cool we are. *makes gagging sounds* The insertion into this pap of footage from the destruction of the World Trade Center was revolting./rant

Haven't seen Finding Nemo, but sure would like to see Triplets win--hand-drawn animation!! A dying art!! Amazing score! Completely insane movie!!!11!

Why is Ken Watanabe the supporting actor in that movie? (Oh, never mind. Dumb question.) Hounsou might win because of the old Oscar-misplaced-AIDS-sympathy-vote thing: you know: voting for an AIDS character = doing something about AIDS.

I wish Depp would get the O for best actor, if only to see if he shows up to accept it; and because it's an extraordinary performance (less obviously brilliant than, say, Penn or Murray, because the vehicle is genre comedy). But Murray is no doubt the sentimental favorite.

As for best picture and best director, meh. LOTR as a whole is a good adaptation of the books (and it's much better in the aggregate than any of the 3 sections). But is it really a great movie?

I just went to see The Battle of Algiers last night. I mean, LOTR is not in the same *universe* as a great movie. It's decent entertainment, well-conceived and well-executed (for the most part).

But honestly, none of the movies nominated seems to me particularly outstanding. I'd probably choose Triplets of Belleville because it's really the only movie this year that really has staying power. (LOTR will survive on the momentum of the long-term Tolkien fanbase. Dunno if the others will even be remembered in 5 years.)

[jlh.livejournal.com]

Aegy is right--

First, in order to be eligible a film must be played in a theater in Los Angleles during the calendar year, and not have aired someplace else (like television) first. So we will look for it for the 2004 awards, and around these parts soon.

Second, foreign language films are nominated by a committee in their country of origin, so for it to get the foreign film nod is less up to the Academy and more up to some bunch of Germans. However, if it doesn't get the award, then the next year it can compete for the other general awards--that's why City of God, which is two years old, has a bunch of nominations this year instead of last year.

[1anonymous1.livejournal.com]

Id say you were dead on. Sorry I cant debate.:)

[jlh.livejournal.com]

Do!

Man, I wish I could get my hands on a screener, yes yes I do. But maybe Film Forum or someone is doing the same thing around these parts. Lord knows there are plenty of Academy members here, and they all get into the movies for free and stuff.

[jlh.livejournal.com]

You know, I think I was so cowed by all the LotR freaks on my flist that I didn't dare suggest that it wouldn't win. I defended the no-acting nods and then I sort of whispered but I really liked Lost in Translation.

I would love Bill to win, I just think that Sean will. Heap big momentum and all of that.

[jlh.livejournal.com]

I totally agree about Errol Morris. I'm planning on seeing that this weekend.

I need to see Seabiscuit, and soon. Girl is absolutely beautiful--but a bit soulless.

If LotR doesn't get costumes then Girl should, or at least Seabiscuit. M&C? Couldn't agree with you more.

Interesting, your comments on Barbarian Invasions. Yeah, "sentimental middlebrow quasi-intellectual French film" sounds like something your average American film critic would fall for. *considers changing vote*

I totally agree with you. In any other year, Triplets would have it sewn up, but Finding Nemo is a juggernaut.

Good point re Hounsou. He could upset.

Depp showed up at the Globes, so I'm pretty sure he'll show for the Oscars. I hope he's a bit better dressed. I would dearly love for him to win, or Bill, but I think Sean has got it. If I were voting, I'd be very, very torn.

I think all the LotR freaks had me too scared to suggest that it wasn't the best film of the year. If I were voting, I'd vote for Lost in Translation, no doubt about it. I think that it definitely will be remembered in five years, as will Mystic River, but I see what you mean about much of the rest.

Thank you so much for this lovely long comment!

[jlh.livejournal.com]

I guess that was up to them, and which song they wanted to put forth for consideration. I loved that movie, though, so I'm really glad we'll get a performance from it during the ceremony!

[ex-mahoney365.livejournal.com]

LOL! Well, I think you're right that it will win, I just think that's sad. And I'll brave the wrath of any LOTR freak on my friends list in saying so. Only because I am fairly confident they won't hurt me. ;P *quavers*

Honestly, I do understand the enthusiasm and love for LOTR. I love these movies; they're one of my happiest guilty pleasures. I just vehemently disagree - and have from FOTR - that Jackson's trilogy is anything more than slam-bang, big-bodied brain candy. It's good stuff, but, geez, it's not Nobel quality by *far*. There's no characterization; cool action and pretty views take precedence over characters *and* story. It's like an enormous overdecorated wedding cake - it tastes great, but it's empty calories and it shows up the bride and groom. :P

(But I won't begrudge people their pleasure when it wins. I know I'd be thrilled if a movie I loved and respected got the recognition I thought it deserved. :)

[ali-wildgoose.livejournal.com]

re: animated feature...

....you know, this is a tough call. Because while the actualy ANIMATION in triplets was fantastic, Nemo was actually much stronger as a film..... *ponderponder* It really depends on if they're feeling arty this year or not :/

[malsperanza.livejournal.com]

Depp showed up at the Globes? Wah! Maybe I should buy a TV after all.

[praetorianguard.livejournal.com]

Wah! I haven't seen nearly enough of these movies to be able to debate any one category intelligently, damn it. Must go to more movies in the next two months.

But let me just say, thank GOD that hack Williams isn't nominated this year.

But I had to agree with that. *rolls eyes* It's just too bad that hack Jamie Horner was.

And I'm thrilled that Samantha Morton was nominated, because she really was lovely in In America.

Now I must go see about 12 more movies. Then I'm sure I'll want to discuss more.